The COVID-19 crisis and nationwide lockdown in March are likely to have a major impact on Hero Motocorp's Q4 FY20 earnings. The company will announce earnings on June 9. 

Brokerages expect more than 30% fall in profit and over 20% decline in revenue from operations as sales volumes plunged 25% YoY to 13.35 lakh units during the quarter.

"We expect revenues to decline by 23% YoY in Q4 FY20 led largely by 25% YoY decline in total volumes," said Kotak Institutional Equities which sees 36% YoY fall in profit. 

HDFC Securities also sees 34% decline in profit for the quarter ended March 2020 YoY.

However, the realization may remain growing in single digit at around 5-6% over a corresponding quarter of last fiscal due to price hike. 

"Realisation is expected to be up by 6% YoY in Q4 FY20 on account of BS-VI transition. The company saw a general price increase of Rs 5000-6000in shifting from BS-IV to BS-VI," Narnolia Financial Services said.

On the operational front, its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are also expected to decline in double digits with a range around 20-38% while margins could be impacted by 100-300 basis points YoY.


HDFC Securities expects the margin to contract by 300/420bps YoY/QoQ, while Kotak expects EBITDA to decline by 38% YoY led by negative operational leverage in Q4 FY20 and margin to contract by 254bps YoY.

Key thing to watch out for would be demand outlook in the rural areas, as these regions are less impacted by COVID-19.